Botswana’s president Duma Boko says the country is “on the verge” of sealing a deal with the United States that would allow its diamonds to enter duty-free. On paper, this looks like a win for both sides. But in reality, the implications could shake the industry and spark a fight between global diamond hubs.
Currently, U.S. jewelers pay a 15% tariff on Botswana’s diamonds—an added cost in an already fragile market. The new deal would cut that to zero, but only if stones are cut and polished in Botswana itself. For diamonds exported rough and finished in India, the tariff would still be a crushing 50%.
That condition is where the controversy begins.
For years, India has dominated the polishing business, employing hundreds of thousands of cutters in Surat. A U.S.–Botswana duty-free pipeline could undercut India’s cost advantage and redirect value chains away from traditional centers. Industry insiders in India are already asking whether Washington is deliberately using tariff policy to favor African beneficiation at the expense of its longtime partners.
Meanwhile, Belgium and Canada—the only two countries currently enjoying duty-free diamond access—stand to lose their exclusivity. Botswana’s entry into that elite club raises questions: Will this deal rewrite the hierarchy of the diamond trade, or will it simply shift leverage from one group of players to another?
Even within Africa, the politics are messy. Angola has pushed for an African-led consortium to bid for De Beers, while Namibia’s government has expressed hesitation about jumping into risky new ventures. If Botswana manages to clinch a U.S. trade edge while its neighbors hesitate, the unity of Africa’s resource strategy could fracture before it’s even formed.
And then there’s the timing. With lab-grown diamonds eating into consumer demand and U.S. shoppers increasingly asking about price transparency, skeptics question whether Botswana is doubling down on an industry at its most volatile moment. Supporters, on the other hand, argue this is exactly the moment for Botswana to seize control of value addition and stop being just a supplier of rough.
So is this deal a bold step toward African empowerment, or a short-term patch that could trigger new trade rivalries? Either way, the outcome won’t just affect tariffs—it could redefine who really holds power in the diamond pipeline.
👉 Explore our Jewelry Guide to see how global trade tensions, tariffs, and lab-grown competition are rewriting the diamond industry’s future.