U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in September, reaching its lowest point since April, according to The Conference Board. The headline index dropped to 94.2 from 97.8 in August, with the Present Situation Index plunging to 125.4—its largest one-month decline in a year.
Consumers’ outlook on the job market was especially bleak. Job availability fell for the ninth consecutive month, hitting a multiyear low. The Expectations Index slipped to 73.4, marking the eighth straight month below the threshold of 80, a level economists say often signals a recession.
“Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and business conditions, but optimism about future income provided some cushion,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board.
The data showed a clear generational split: confidence improved among consumers under 35 but weakened among those over 35. By income, results were mixed, with notable declines among households earning $25,000–$35,000 and those above $200,000.
Inflation and prices once again dominated consumer concerns, reclaiming their position as the top driver of sentiment. Average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from 6.1% in August, but still above the 5% level last seen at the end of 2024. Tariff concerns declined but remained elevated, tied to fears of higher prices.
Consumers’ outlook on personal finances also weakened, with the sharpest monthly drop recorded since July 2022. More respondents now believe the U.S. is already in recession, while expectations of a recession in the next 12 months rose to the highest since May.
Spending intentions painted a mixed picture. Plans to buy new and used cars declined, but home-buying intentions rose to a four-month high. Purchases of big-ticket appliances varied: TVs and dryers saw the strongest gains, while refrigerators fell. Electronics were largely positive, led by smartphones after Apple’s launch of the iPhone 17. However, vacation planning slumped to its lowest level since April, with international travel intentions seeing the steepest decline.
Learn how shifting consumer confidence impacts jewelry buying behavior in our Jewelry Business Guide.