Just as the U.S.–China trade war took a breather, the global supply chain was teetering on the edge of collapse. New data from GEP’s Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reveals a stunning drop in manufacturing orders after a wild rush to stockpile inventory — and the aftershocks are still being felt.
📦 “The pause on tariffs is a major relief,” says John Piatek of GEP. “But it came just as demand in China was crashing, and U.S. manufacturers were panic-hoarding materials.”
Even with signs of a trade deal, uncertainty is still killing the vibe. Companies are scrambling to de-risk their supply chains, especially when it comes to exposure to China. The volatility is making executives nervous about investing in new infrastructure or growth.
📊 GEP’s index — based on surveys of 27,000 businesses — tracks shortages, costs, inventories, and shipping chaos. And it’s painting a pretty intense picture:
- A “hockey stick” spike in April as North American firms scrambled to stock up
- Manufacturing in Asia hit its weakest point since December 2023
- Spare capacity is building up across China, Taiwan, and South Korea — signaling slowdown
💡 A surprise silver lining? Europe might be bouncing back! Germany and France are finally putting idle supply chain resources to work. But the U.K., despite its early U.S. trade deal, is seeing record-low supplier activity.
⚓ Meanwhile, U.S. ports are pivoting. Stephen Edwards, CEO of the Port of Virginia, says their hottest growth is coming from:
- 🇮🇳 India
- 🇻🇳 Vietnam
- 🇪🇺 Europe
China trade has stayed flat for four years, and Edwards predicts the future lies beyond Beijing. “If global trade moves toward Southeast Asia and Europe, we’re ready,” he told CNBC.
🔮 Bottom line: The global supply chain is holding it together — but just barely. And if tariffs return after the 90-day truce? Buckle up.