New York—Deloitte is predicting an increase in holiday retail sales this year despite economic uncertainty, with shoppers expected to have a boost in disposable income.
Its retail and consumer products division expects holiday sales to increase between 2.9 and 3.4 percent, totaling between $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion.
Last year, holiday sales were up 4.2 percent to $1.57 trillion in the November 2024 through January 2025 period.
The holiday sales figures are seasonally adjusted and exclude automotive and gasoline sales.
E-commerce sales are expected to grow “at a healthy pace” of between 7 and 9 percent this holiday season, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion.
In the previous holiday period, e-commerce sales were up 8 percent to an estimated $285 billion.
Disposable personal income (DPI), a driver of retail sales, is expected to grow between 3.1 and 5.4 percent over the holiday period, said Deloitte.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending," said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights.
"While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."
The holiday season is expected to demonstrate the resilience of consumers despite economic uncertainty, said Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader.
"Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” said Martini.
“Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."
·