In a turbulent year for the global luxury watch industry, the second-hand market is proving a rare bright spot. Pre-owned Rolex and Patek Philippe models are leading a modest yet meaningful recovery, even as new watch sales face headwinds from tariffs, currency pressures, and sluggish demand in key regions.
The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index — which tracks the top 50 most-traded luxury watches by transaction value — climbed 5.3% during the first half of 2025 and has continued its upward momentum into the third quarter. Among the standout performers: Rolex’s gold Daytona 116508 and Patek Philippe’s Aquanaut 5167A, both of which have surged in value amid growing demand.
Although the gains don’t match the explosive growth seen during the pandemic, when consumers flush with disposable income turned to high-end watches, they are nonetheless notable. Today’s recovery is unfolding in a very different environment — one where tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty dominate.
New watch sales, in contrast, are struggling. A 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss watch imports, introduced amid escalating trade tensions, has hit the primary market hard. Swiss watch exports fell 5.6% in June, continuing a downward trend that’s affected shipments to the U.S., Japan, and Hong Kong — three of the industry’s largest buyers.
“The pre-owned market is thriving partly because of what’s holding the new market back,” said Christy Davis, founder of London-based watch trading platform Subdial. “High gold prices are pushing up the retail cost of new pieces, and supply issues — especially for popular models — are driving buyers to the secondary market, where availability is immediate.”
Retailers often maintain tight control over new inventory, with allocation systems that leave customers waiting months, if not years, for sought-after models. Meanwhile, the secondary market offers broader access with no wait times.
The performance of Rolex’s gold Daytona comes amid a surge in bullion prices, fueled by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as global economic uncertainty. Patek Philippe’s Aquanaut, on the other hand, is gaining ground on the brand’s more iconic Nautilus, pointing to a shift in consumer tastes.
“There’s a clear trend toward understated elegance — what some are calling ‘quiet luxury,’” said Davis. “The Aquanaut fits that perfectly. It’s refined without being flashy.”
While pre-owned platforms find momentum, the broader industry continues to face challenges. Swatch Group AG, which owns premium brands such as Omega and Blancpain, posted a 7.1% decline in first-half sales, citing weak demand from China, including Hong Kong and Macau.
Currency fluctuations are also playing a role. A strong Swiss franc has made exports more expensive, compounding the difficulties for manufacturers like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet.
Meanwhile, Swiss officials are actively negotiating with the U.S. in hopes of reversing or reducing the punishing 39% tariff — the steepest in any developed market. Whether those efforts bear fruit remains to be seen.
For now, however, the second-hand market remains the silver lining — offering investors and enthusiasts alike a place where demand is still ticking upward.
✨ Want to explore more exclusive insights into the global diamond & jewelry industry?
👉 Visit aidi.org