Lucara Diamond Corp. just slashed its 2025 revenue forecast — and things are looking rocky for the once-promising miner 💥.
📉 From Sparkle to Struggle
Lucara’s new revenue guidance? Just $150M–$160M — way down from its original $195M–$225M. The company is being forced to process low-grade, low-value ore, thanks to:
- 🌧️ Heavy rains cutting off access to the open pit
- 😵💫 A surprise geological twist blocking entry to richer ore
💰 Less Diamond, Less Money
Output from the Karowe mine in Botswana is now expected to hit 330k–360k carats (down from 400k).
Sales volume? Slashed to 240k–370k carats, far below the initial 420k.
😰 Cash Flow Crisis
Lucara has burned through both its project and working capital facilities — meaning there's no backup money left.
The company now admits it may not survive the next 12 months if market or operational conditions don’t change.
“These conditions cast significant doubt on the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”
🪨 Why It Matters
Karowe was known for producing mega-diamonds, including some over 1,000 carats! But in Q1 2025:
- Revenue fell 23% to $30.3M
- Sales volume dropped 22%
- Net loss was $100,000 (way better than the $7M loss last year)
- HB contract sales fell 17%, despite making up 64% of revenue
- 6 diamonds over 100 carats were recovered — including a 1,476-carat non-gem sold for $1.1M
✨ The Tech Angle
Lucara also sells through:
- 🧠 Clara, a digital platform that matches buyers with specific stones
- 🤝 HB Antwerp, for large stones over 10.8 carats
- 💼 Quarterly tenders
But even digital innovation couldn’t shield them from geological bad luck and a cash crunch.
📌 Bottom Line
Lucara is hanging by a (diamond-studded) thread. If it can’t secure new financing or unlock higher-grade ore soon, the sparkle might fade for good 💀💎.
Stay tuned — the next few months could be make or break.