In a dramatic twist that feels ripped from a Netflix docuseries, Botswana is moving to acquire majority control of De Beers by October. Anglo American Plc, which owns 85% of the diamond titan, is actively divesting as part of its restructuring plan, slashing De Beers’ valuation to just $4.9 billion earlier this year. For a company that once defined the very concept of luxury, this fire-sale moment says more about the state of natural diamonds than it does about Botswana’s political ambitions.
The Market Reality: Lab-Grown Diamonds Are Eating De Beers Alive
Let’s not sugarcoat it: the lab-grown diamond market has reshaped the entire industry. Demand for cheaper, ethical, and sustainable stones is crushing the old model. Anglo’s write-down wasn’t random—it was forced by a consumer base that increasingly prefers lab-grown engagement rings over mined diamonds with a bloody, carbon-heavy past.
Research shows lab-grown diamond demand surged from just 3.5% in 2018 to nearly 20% in 2023, and projections suggest global market share could exceed 25% by 2030. That’s not competition—it’s domination in slow motion.
Botswana’s Gamble: Owning a Legacy Brand in Decline
For Botswana, diamonds aren’t just shiny rocks—they’re the backbone of the economy, generating 80% of exports and one-third of state revenue. But with S&P Global Ratings already forecasting a second year of contraction in 2025, the gamble to double down on De Beers feels like clinging to a sinking ship.
President Duma Boko is framing the takeover as a way to “reinforce the value of natural stones” and is even urging consumers to reject synthetic alternatives. But the marketing war is already lost—lab-grown diamonds are marketed not just as beautiful, but as guilt-free, sustainable luxury. You can’t undo that cultural shift with old-school ad campaigns.
The Future: Two Diamond Markets, Two Stories
If Botswana pulls off this acquisition, it will control the world’s most famous diamond brand at the exact moment its cultural dominance slips away. Meanwhile, the lab-grown diamond industry is thriving, with innovations like carbon capture diamonds and traceable supply chains making them the default choice for Gen Z and millennial buyers.
The future isn’t natural vs. synthetic—it’s parallel universes:
- Natural diamonds becoming ultra-niche, museum-piece luxury for the ultra-rich.
- Lab-grown diamonds becoming the mainstream, from tennis bracelets to lab-grown diamond engagement rings that symbolize modern values.
And here’s the kicker: De Beers itself already hedged its bets with Lightbox, its lab-grown division. If even the diamond cartel can’t ignore the lab-grown wave, why should consumers?
The Bottom Line
Botswana might get De Beers, but it won’t get back the monopoly mindset of the 20th century. The industry belongs to the consumers now—and they’ve spoken. For everyday luxury, for weddings, for cultural relevance—the lab-grown diamond market is the one rewriting the rules.