Although Tenoris often shifts between the natural and lab-grown diamond industries, and some have questioned his understanding of the retail sector on international platforms like LinkedIn, the "50%" announcement caused significant excitement.
Current Market Situation
A year later, we are once again looking at Tenoris' report to examine the current market trends, starting with loose diamond sales data.
Lab-Grown Diamonds
In July, sales of lab-grown loose diamonds in the U.S. retail market grew by 28.6% year-on-year, with sales value increasing by 4.4%. This indicates that the average retail price of lab-grown diamonds in the U.S. has dropped by approximately 19% over the past year (as noted in Tenoris' report).
For the first seven months of this year, the total retail value of lab-grown loose diamonds fell by around 5% year-on-year. In comparison, during the same period in 2023 (January-July), total retail sales rose by 20.9%.
If this data is accurate, the "value scale" of lab-grown diamonds in the U.S. retail market has indeed declined, even though sales volume has grown.
Natural Diamonds
In contrast, the sales volume of natural loose diamonds in July increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with sales value rising by 10%. This is positive news; however, before celebrating a "market recovery," it's important to recognize that the baseline for July last year was extremely low (as noted in Tenoris' report), with both sales volume and value dropping by 30% and 34%, respectively.
Thus, while the value of natural diamonds in the U.S. retail market has indeed rebounded, it remains relatively sluggish.
Jewelry Sales
Looking briefly at finished jewelry retail data for the U.S. market in July:
- Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry: Sales increased by 59% year-on-year, while retail value grew by 52%. Both metrics exceeded those of June this year (+43%, +30%) and July last year (+51.9%, +31.6%).
- Natural Diamond Jewelry: Sales volume increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and retail value grew by 7.6%. These figures were also higher than those for June this year (sales volume not disclosed, retail value -2.8%) and July last year (-9.9%, -9.1%).
Wholesale Price Changes for Lab-Grown Diamonds
During data compilation this morning (some results shown in the chart), we found that compared to the end of July, the B2B price index for lab-grown diamonds rose by 3-5 percentage points. Notably, round diamonds saw a significant rebound in per-carat prices.
Note: The "price index" mentioned here does not refer to the lowest transaction price but is a composite result of top-ranked prices across different platforms.
Considering the positive performance of the U.S. retail market in July and recent conversations with industry peers, we can conclude that "the market has started moving." However, the intensity of the price index rebound remains limited, and there doesn't appear to be a fundamental shift in bidding at the wholesale level.
We will continue to share updates if further changes occur in the latter half of the year.